China to defend multilateralism and cleantech trade at COP31
China will prioritize upholding multilateralism and defending its clean technology exports from unilateral trade measures at the upcoming COP31 climate summit in Turkey, while pushing for clarity on climate finance and implementation pathways.
The COP31 climate summit in Turkey next month will reopen the contentious link between climate action and trade. Unilateral measures and carbon border mechanisms are set to dominate the agenda, posing a direct challenge to China's dominance in global cleantech manufacturing. China has staunchly denounced US and EU tariffs and import restrictions on its green technologies, which Washington and Brussels argue benefit from unfair government subsidies.
China's vice-minister of ecology and environment, Li Gao, told a press conference last week that COP31 should discuss the free flow of green technology as well as trade "unilateralism and protectionism". He warned that Beijing would give a firm response to attacks against it. Observers say trade is likely to re-surface as a major sticking point between the EU and emerging economies, including China, during the talks.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the climate-trade issue is likely to be one of the prominent issues in Antalya. China and other developing countries argue that the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) violates international trade rules. The CBAM imposes a border levy on imports of high-emitting products from countries with less stringent emissions regulations. The UK is set to implement its own version from January. At COP30, China and other large emerging economies used trade discussions to take aim at the EU's mechanism.
China's climate finance and NDC agenda
China's top priority at COP31 will be upholding multilateralism. The country may seek clarity on implementation pathways for national climate pledges and the $300 billion climate finance goal. Analysts expect China may be happy to let other developing countries push the climate finance agenda while serving as a broker. Vice-premier Ding Xuexiang stated at COP29 that China has provided and mobilised over 177 billion yuan ($26.5 billion) in climate finance for developing countries since 2016, but it has refrained from issuing further quantitative updates since.
Cleantech competitiveness and market access
China's dominance in solar, battery and EV manufacturing will be tested as trade restrictions threaten the free flow of low-carbon products. Access to these affordable technologies has become a key issue for developing countries seeking to transition from fossil fuels. Professor Jeremy Wallace notes China's firms have innovated and scaled up production, making solar, batteries and EVs cost-competitive and leading in deployment. However, he also notes China's renewables buildout has slowed dramatically in 2026, while new coal power and coal chemical facilities continue to be built.
The Chinese government has restricted firms from taking their best manufacturing innovations out of the country when building factories abroad. An EU-China deal struck earlier this month to halve exports of Chinese hybrid vehicles to the bloc could help ease tensions, with further talks planned in March. Li Gao pledged to "advocate for an open and efficient trade system that facilitates adoption of clean-energy technologies".
What comes next for climate and trade
The dialogue process established at COP30 aims to feed recommendations into the second Global Stocktake at COP33, but practical solutions remain elusive. During the first of three annual trade dialogues held in Bonn, countries largely reiterated their existing positions. The EU defended its carbon border mechanism and noted the dialogue should not become a space to address trade disputes. Russia and the group of African countries suggested creating a formal negotiation track for trade discussions at the UN climate talks.
The first meeting of the Integrated Forum on Climate Change and Trade was poorly attended after last-minute participation by Russia led many developed countries to skip it. One delegate said countries that joined had a useful discussion but it wasn't the meeting it was originally envisioned to be. Recent discussions have remained stuck at the level of principled debate and have failed to identify practical solutions. The EU and other developed economies will be reluctant to reopen the matter in Antalya. All eyes are now on whether COP31 can handle these divisions or if climate action will be undermined by rising trade unilateralism.
