UN Climate Talks Split Over Science and Equity Debate

A coalition of diplomats calling themselves the 'Friends of Science' issued a stark warning during June's gridlocked UN climate talks in Bonn. They stated climate science was under attack, primarily from those who believe it threatens their economic prospects, a thinly-veiled reference to fossil fuel-dependent states.

Fiji's lead negotiator, Sivendra Michael, denounced what he called a very polluted narrative. He singled out ECO, the daily newsletter produced by Climate Action Network (CAN) International, for overlooking the issue. "They are representing developing countries, but they are not representing us," Michael said. His comments highlighted a rift between governments over climate science that is creating tensions inside the wider climate movement.

CAN's Stance Sparks Internal Concern

CAN International's leadership has publicly backed arguments, championed by big emerging economies like India, that question the fairness of IPCC models. These models are dominated by research from the Global North. However, some climate activists from frontline Pacific nations are disappointed by CAN's silence on a connected dispute. This dispute is over whether the IPCC's forthcoming AR7 assessment report should be finished in time to inform the next UN global stocktake of climate action in 2028.

Over the last two years, India, Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, and Kenya have pushed back against aligning the IPCC's AR7 timeline with the stocktake. They argue it would burden developing countries with limited resources. CAN International Executive Director Tasneem Essop participated in an August webinar where panelists challenged the 'Friends of Science' campaign. An Indian scientist and government negotiator, Tejal Kanitkar, argued the IPCC's scientific assumptions perpetuate inequity.

Veteran Voices Fear for Influence

Bill Hare, involved in CAN's establishment nearly four decades ago and now head of Climate Analytics, expressed deep concern. "The way in which CAN International is playing into what could be the destruction of the IPCC inputs into the climate process is very concerning," Hare told reporters. He said it was a mistake for CAN to align with arguments from India and Saudi Arabia while those countries are blocking the timely conclusion of a key IPCC report.

Hare fears these tensions could hamper CAN's widely recognized power to influence the talks. "The CAN International voice has been very, very important in the process." he said.

The Call for a 'Fair Share' Approach

The late August webinar aimed to untangle a narrative that treats science and equity as opposing priorities. Tejal Kanitkar presented findings co-authored in a paper. She argued IPCC scenarios for emission cuts are based on assumptions from Global North researchers that are skewed against the world's poorest nations. These scenarios were incorporated into the UN's first global stocktake in 2023.

Kanitkar said the 'Friends of Science' group included "some of the people who have over-consumed the carbon budget and now use science as a slogan". Commenting on the presentation, CAN's Essop said imbalances of power dictate who designs models and determines their assumptions. Her intervention focused on the need for equitable emissions-reduction pathways based on a 'fair share' of action tied to historical responsibility.

IPCC Models and the Path Forward

Bill Hare later acknowledged most IPCC models for 1.5C scenarios fail to account for the higher cost of capital and transition financing in developing countries. He noted this is a well-known limitation, but the IPCC gives a nuanced reading of its scenarios. The next generation of models is expected to include more consideration of equity. A developing country climate scientist currently involved in the IPCC process echoed this, telling reporters that authors are working to identify and correct biases in economic models.

Despite the criticisms, all governments must sign off on every line of the IPCC's key 'summary for policy-makers'. The 2023 approved summary included the contested emissions reduction figures. Hare said he supports the 'Friends of Science' campaign, arguing the world needs a strategy for handle huge risks to ecosystems and societies.