Australian ski season cut short by heat and El Niño

Major Australian ski resorts are ending their seasons up to a month early. A record-hot winter with limited snowfall, followed by rain, has forced the closures. The season's challenges were predicted in June as a building El Niño combined with global heating.

Seven resorts are either already closed or will stop ski lift operations this weekend. The Victorian resorts of Mount Buller, Mount Hotham, and Falls Creek, along with Charlotte Pass in New South Wales, will close this weekend. Mount Baw Baw in Victoria, Selwyn in New South Wales, and Ben Lomond in Tasmania have already shut. Resorts typically aim to stay open until the first weekend of October.

Climate scientist calls season 'a shocker'

Dr Andrew Watkins, a climate scientist and adjunct professor at Monash University, called the season "frankly a shocker." He serves as a science adviser to the campaign group Protect our Winters. "This was the fourth disappointing season since 2020," he said. "The problems were El Niño and climate change. It was not that dry this year, but the problem was the warmth."

Watkins explained that winter temperatures were too high, causing precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow. "Rain is the natural enemy of a snowpack. It melts it and then washes it away," he said. Data from weather observations at Cabramurra in Kosciuszko National Park suggests alpine winters have warmed by about 2C since the 1960s. That temperature rise would have been the difference between rain and snow. "It would have been a bumper season if it had been 50 years ago," Watkins said.

Record-breaking heat and rainfall

The Bureau of Meteorology provided data showing the extreme conditions. Falls Creek and Mount Hotham had their wettest winters in over 30 years. Along with Mount Buller, they also recorded their warmest winters on record for both average maximum and minimum temperatures.

New South Wales, Tasmania, and Victoria all recorded their hottest winters on record this year. In July, many ski resorts broke all-time heat records for the month, with temperatures during one hot spell up to 12C above average.

El Niño and climate change link

The Bureau of Meteorology forecast this week that the current El Niño would be the strongest on record. Australian scientists said climate change had made the strength of the event six times more likely. A bureau spokesperson said this winter's heat was consistent "with a developing strong El Niño." The season saw long periods of high pressure in the Tasman Sea that directed warmer air from the north over alpine regions.

"But winter 2026 also experienced relatively warm nights, with cloud cover and moist soils resulting in less overnight cooling," the spokesperson added. "This is in contrast with historical El Niño events. This is all occurring against the background of a globally warmer climate."

Industry response and snowmaking reliance

Josh Elliott, chief executive of Snow Resorts Australia, acknowledged "no question it has been a challenging season for natural snowfall." He said the winter was shaped by abnormally warm weather and climatic variability, but cautioned that variability means some seasons are better than others. "This is an abnormal season and shouldn't be considered in isolation as a reflection of what future seasons will look like," Elliott said.

He noted that snow activities had been available since the June long weekend, with all resorts operating through the July school holidays. Elliott highlighted the importance of snowmaking investment, stating that underlying demand for snow holidays remained strong through July and August. Two other major NSW resorts, Perisher and Thredbo, remain open.