Tropical Nations Last to Benefit from Net Zero Emissions

New research led by Australian scientists warns that the unequal impacts of climate change will persist for decades even if global greenhouse gas emissions are cut to net zero. Poorer nations in the tropics will be among the last to feel any benefits from climate stabilization.

Temperatures have already risen more significantly in tropical areas relative to their historic ranges compared to higher latitudes. A team from the University of Melbourne, led by Dr Andrew King, found this disparity would not be reversed immediately upon reaching net zero emissions. Their study analyzed computer modelling experiments of temperature changes under net-zero scenarios, overlaid with national GDP data.

Persistent Inequality Beyond Net Zero

Dr Andrew King stated that if the world follows a path close to net zero, the inequality seen in present-day warming persists indefinitely. He noted that the wealthier countries which have contributed more to the problem are not the most exposed to its worst effects, even beyond the net-zero point. The regions that have not caused the warming are those that experience the most warming, he said.

King emphasized that the fate of the planet's poorest regions, which are concentrated closer to the equator, depends on how much greenhouse gas is emitted before the world reaches net zero. Even after achieving net zero, an enormous amount of carbon remains in the atmosphere, with effects continuing for centuries. Getting to net zero sooner is key to limiting that long-term inequality, he argued.

Vulnerable Ecosystems and Societies

The research highlights that tropical ecosystems, such as some coral reefs, have evolved within a narrower temperature range than those at higher latitudes. These systems will continue to be heavily affected for a longer period as the world cuts emissions. King's team concluded that under a "net-negative emissions" plan where carbon dioxide is drawn from the atmosphere, it could still take "many decades to begin to reverse" the existing temperature inequality.

Link to Statelessness Risks

The climate inequality study coincided with a separate report commissioned by the UN refugee agency and the Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness. That report examines how the climate crisis increases the risk of people becoming stateless. It calls on nations to support the continuity of statehood for countries facing extreme climate damage, including Pacific islands losing land to rising seas.

University of Melbourne Associate Professor Radha Govil, a co-author of the statelessness report, said there is a correlation between the regions most affected by climate change and statelessness. The UN agency estimates about 4.5 million people are stateless but accepts the true number is likely much larger as stateless people are often invisible to official statistics.

The report warns the climate crisis risks creating more stateless people through displacement after climate-driven disasters like fire, flood, and sea level rise. Its recommendations include helping countries digitize citizenship records and ensuring children are afforded citizenship if left without parents after a disaster. It also notes risks to children increase if mothers lack the same rights as fathers to confer nationality. Govil stated the proposed recommendations are doable and can help stave off the risk of statelessness.