Brazil's 2026 Election Key for Climate Policy and Amazon

Brazil’s presidential election on October 4, 2026, will directly shape the country's climate policy and the fate of the Amazon rainforest. With polls showing left-wing President Lula at 39% and right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro at 35%, a second-round runoff on October 25 is highly probable, deciding whether Brazil advances or reverses recent environmental gains.

Deforestation Progress and Risks

Brazil is poised to record its lowest-ever level of deforestation, a trend achieved through efforts to curb illegal clearing and restore Indigenous rights under Lula. This progress remains fragile. The powerful agribusiness lobby in Congress, which shapes Amazon policy, could be emboldened if Bolsonaro takes power. A Bolsonaro victory might also shift the Supreme Court to the right, further endangering environmental protections.

Fossil Fuel Tensions in Climate Policy

Despite international climate pledges, there is cross-party support within Brazil for expanding oil and gas production. President Lula himself is keen to extract fossil fuels from the Amazon region. This creates a stark contradiction in the nation's environmental stance, where progress on forest protection exists alongside ambitions for hydrocarbon exploitation that would drive global warming.

International Climate Roadmap at Stake

Brazil’s own transition roadmap on moving away from fossil fuels, commissioned earlier in 2026, has not been made public and its future hinges on the election. Also, the country is due to deliver a global TAFF roadmap by the COP31 climate summit. Flávio Bolsonaro, a climate change denier like his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, could try to pull Brazil out of the Paris Agreement entirely, derailing both domestic and international plans.

Global Climate Talks Proceed Amid National Uncertainty

As Brazil's electoral drama unfolds, a Pre-COP meeting will be held from October 5 to 8 in Fiji and Tuvalu. This gathering of government negotiators aims to lay the groundwork for deals at COP31. A group of senior figures will first visit Tuvalu to see areas affected by sea level rise, inspect climate resilience projects, and meet local communities before flying to Fiji for the formal talks.

Governments are expected to advance a roadmap for protecting oceans from climate change at this Pacific-focused meeting. Fiji stated that Pacific nations will emphasise the need to follow science and limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Australia is due to present an action plan to improve access to climate finance for small island and least-developed nations, intended for endorsement ahead of COP31 in Antalya. The Pre-COP includes a Leaders’ plenary session and a civil society 'green zone' hosting talks on public transport, carbon markets, and an International Court of Justice advisory opinion on climate obligations.