Fear of Missing Out Undermines Climate Diplomacy

The annual UN climate conference has become a massive event, attracting tens of thousands of participants from around the world. However, this growth may be undermining the effectiveness of international climate cooperation.

## The Rise of the Mega-COP

When the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) first met in the 1990s, the annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs) attracted only a few thousand participants. Even the Kyoto conference, which produced the first legally binding emissions agreement, hosted fewer than 10,000 people.

| COP | Year | Participants | | --- | --- | --- | | COP 1 | 1995 | 3,000 | | COP 3 | 1997 | 10,000 | | COP 21 | 2015 | 40,000 | | COP 28 | 2026 | 42,000 |

Since then, analysis by ecbi reveals a striking trend: after each major treaty COP, the participation at the next COP approximately doubled.

## The Fear of Missing Out

Part of the answer to the question of why the COP has grown so large is success. As climate change has risen up the political and economic agenda, more actors have become engaged. However, our analysis reveals that a less acknowledged force is also driving the spikes in participation: the fear of missing out (FOMO).

As more heads of state attended, ministers concluded they had to be there too. As ministers arrived in greater numbers, government delegations expanded. Businesses, investors, researchers, campaigners, journalists, city leaders, and philanthropies reached the same conclusion: if everyone important is going to COP, we cannot afford to stay away.

The result is a self-reinforcing cycle. The larger COP becomes, the more indispensable attendance appears, because presence signals relevance.

## The Negotiating Community Has Barely Grown

The headline attendance figures tell only part of the story. At COP28, more than 42,000 Party badges were issued to official national delegations. However, only 1,581 delegates had also attended the technical negotiating session in Bonn just five months earlier. Fewer than 4% of Party delegates formed the core negotiating community.

| COP | Core Negotiating Community | | --- | --- | | COP 21 | 1,300 | | COP 22 | 1,400 | | COP 23 | 1,500 | | COP 24 | 1,600 | | COP 28 | 1,581 |

The negotiating community has not become twenty times larger, but the COP has.

## One COP, Three Different Events

Today's COP has evolved into three very different events rolled into one. The first is the formal negotiating session, where governments agree rules, guidance, and decisions under the Convention and the Paris Agreement. The second is a global political summit, where leaders announce initiatives and demonstrate political commitment. The third is a vast climate expo, where businesses, cities, researchers, financial institutions, and civil society showcase solutions, build partnerships, and engage the public.

Each of them serves a valuable purpose, but the problem is that they have become bundled together by historical accident rather than institutional design.

## Bigger is Not Always Better

The consequences of "mega-COPs" are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The countries most vulnerable to climate change are increasingly less able to host COPs and thus lose the ability to have their voices properly heard. Hosting a modern COP now requires enormous financial resources, extensive security operations, and accommodation capacity that many countries simply do not possess. Even wealthier nations have become more reluctant to take on the burden.

Inside the venue, size creates its own inefficiencies. Climate negotiations often advance through informal conversations: a chance meeting in a corridor, a discussion over coffee, an impromptu conversation between delegates who discover common ground. Those opportunities become rarer when participants spend hours navigating enormous venues and crowded security checkpoints.

Observer access is constrained by overcrowding. National delegations increasingly include large numbers of non-government participants, sometimes outnumbering officials from government ministries. Meanwhile, businesses, campaigners, and journalists compete with negotiators for the same space and attention.

The very scale of the event also creates a reputational problem. A gathering of 60,000 or more people inevitably creates expectations of dramatic political breakthroughs every year. Yet much of today's climate diplomacy involves steady, technical progress. When those quieter achievements are judged against the expectations generated by a mega-event, disappointment in the UN climate change process becomes almost inevitable.

## Time to Unbundle

Not everything must happen in the same place at the same time. Negotiations, political leadership, and implementation partnerships each deserve their own space. They should become separate events.

Routine governing body sessions, involving the roughly 5,000 participants directly engaged in the formal process, could be held in Bonn, where the UN climate secretariat is based. Political summits could be convened separately when leaders' intervention is genuinely needed. Climate expos could continue to rotate with the COP Presidency, providing dedicated opportunities for businesses, investors, cities, researchers, and civil society to showcase solutions and forge partnerships.

Such an approach would strengthen, not weaken, participation. Negotiators would benefit from a more focused and effective working environment. Host countries would face a far more manageable logistical and financial challenge. Climate-vulnerable countries would once again have a realistic opportunity to host key meetings and shape the global agenda. Businesses, investors, cities, and civil society would gain greater visibility by engaging in forums designed for partnership, innovation, and implementation, rather than competing with formal negotiations for space and attention.