Weaker UK EV targets could raise consumer costs by £3bn annually by 2030

The UK government is considering reducing its electric vehicle (EV) sales targets, a move that could cost consumers an extra £3bn annually by 2030, according to analysis by Carbon Brief. The current policy, known as the zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) mandate, requires 80% of new car sales to be battery EVs by 2030. However, reports suggest the Labour government may lower this target to 50%, alongside options for 60% or 70%. A consultation on weakening the mandate is reportedly under review by the prime minister’s office. ## Economic and environmental impacts If the ZEV mandate is weakened to 50% by 2030, there could be up to 3 million fewer BEVs on UK roads by that year, according to the NGO Transport & Environment (T&E). This reduction would lead to higher ownership costs for drivers, as BEVs are currently £1,100 cheaper to run annually than petrol cars due to lower fuel costs. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) found that BEVs are over £1,000 per year cheaper to own than petrol cars or plug-in hybrids when considering purchase price, fuel, insurance, and proposed pay-per-mile charges. Carbon Brief’s analysis estimates that weaker EV targets could add £3bn in annual ownership costs for UK drivers by 2030. Additionally, the move could result in an extra 7.4 million tonnes of CO2 emissions that year, equivalent to a 2.5% increase in national emissions under the UK’s climate goals. The UK would also need to import an additional 17 million barrels of oil in 2030, raising net imports by 8%. ## Industry reactions and risks Industry group Energy UK argues that the ZEV mandate is the “single biggest driver of emissions reductions” in government climate plans and that shifting to EVs will help reduce household energy bills for everyone. The group warns that weakening the mandate could “put billions of pounds of committed investments at risk,” including in EV charging infrastructure and battery supply chains. However, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) claims that carmakers are already spending billions on discounts, incentives, and marketing to boost EV sales. The group argues that “natural” demand for EVs is insufficient to meet the current mandate, though its claims are disputed by other stakeholders. Carbon Brief’s analysis highlights the broader economic and environmental consequences of relaxing EV targets, emphasizing the potential financial burden on consumers and the impact on the UK’s climate commitments.