El Niño Forecast

The UK's Met Office predicts the strongest El Niño event in over a century, bringing increased rainfall and storms to the UK this autumn

The Guardian Climate Crisis 23 August 2026 Source: The Guardian Climate Crisis

Impacts In Europe: Black and white image of a smokestack with smoke against a clear sky in Hamburg.

The Met Office has forecast that the El Niño event developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest for more than a century. According to the national weather service, this will make 2027 another record-breaking year for heat, with the global temperature temporarily exceeding 1.5C above the preindustrial average.

Expected Impacts

The El Niño event is expected to bring increased rainfall and storms to the UK this autumn, with the Met Office predicting that the effects will be felt worldwide. Prof Adam Scaife, the Met Office's head of long-range forecasting, said that the pulse in heat generated by El Niño means that the global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5C above the preindustrial average.

Global Consequences

The Met Office is not the only forecaster to highlight the magnitude of the current El Niño cycle. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has said that there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event. The UN has warned that the conditions created by El Niño could push 50 million people into acute hunger by the end of next year.

Regional Variations

The impacts of El Niño will vary by region, with some areas experiencing severe droughts and others experiencing increased rainfall and storms. The Met Office has said that north-western Europe, including the UK, is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions, while southern Africa and north-east Australia are at risk of drought. The following table shows the expected regional variations:

The Met Office has also reported that seven reservoirs in England are currently classed as having exceptionally low storage levels, with the overall level of reservoir storage in England standing at 63%, down from 66% a week ago and 16 percentage points below the long-term average for the time of year. The Environment Agency has said that it could take months of sustained rainfall before rivers, reservoirs, and groundwaters are completely replenished, which is when a drought would be officially over. According to the Met Office, the effects of El Niño will be particularly strong throughout the tropics, where severe droughts are expected in places like South America and the west Pacific. The UK's Met Office predictions are reportedly some of the most conservative out there, according to Liz Stephens, a professor in climate risks and resilience at the University of Reading. The source of this information is the Met Office, as reported by the Guardian.