Wildfires in Europe Set to Increase by 39% Even in Best-Case Climate Scenario
A study has found that wildfires in Europe are projected to burn 39% more of the continent by the end of the century, even in the best-case scenario for stopping global heating, unless action is taken to manage them better.
The threat of wildfires in Europe is becoming increasingly dire, with a new study finding that the continent can expect a 39% increase in burnt area by the end of the century, even if global heating is capped at 1.8C above preindustrial levels. This increase is driven by the rise in hot, dry, and windy weather that can turn small fires into massive infernos.
Climate Scenario Projections
The study modelled two different climate scenarios: an optimistic scenario with 1.8C of global heating, and a pessimistic scenario with 3.6C of heating. The results show that in the pessimistic scenario, the burnt area would almost triple, while in the optimistic scenario, some regions would experience moderate increases in fire weather, while others would see little change.
Fire Management and Mitigation
Improvements in fire management could help to moderate the increases in burnt area, with the study finding that investments in fire management could reduce the burnt area by more than 70%. However, the researchers note that fire management cannot replace climate mitigation, and that even with improved fire management, the burnt area would still increase if global heating continues to rise.
Current Fire Season and Future Projections
The current fire season in Europe is already shaping up to be one of the worst on record, with over 600,000 hectares burned so far, and records broken for this time of year in several countries. The researchers compared the projected annual burnt area in 2070-2100 with modelled results for the period 2000-2030, and found that the increase in fire weather was the biggest driver of change. The study's findings are a stark reminder of the need for urgent action to address the root causes of wildfires, including climate change and land management practices.
The following table shows the projected increases in burnt area under different climate scenarios:
| Scenario | Projected Increase in Burnt Area |
|---|---|
| Optimistic (1.8C) | 39% |
| Pessimistic (3.6C) | almost triple |
According to Maik Billing, lead author of the study, investments in fire management can help to a certain limit, but if global emissions continue to rise, strong increases in burnt area are still expected. Víctor Resco de Dios, a forestry engineer, notes that the problem of wildfires is often accompanied by an unproductive blame game, and that the study is a reminder to move beyond scapegoating and address the underlying causes of wildfires.
