UK's Over-Reliance on Climate-Vulnerable Countries Threatens Fresh Food Supply

The UK's reliance on food imports from countries vulnerable to climate change poses a significant threat to the country's fresh food supply. According to the Food Foundation, the UK imports 40% of its food, with 80% of its fruit and 47% of its vegetables coming from abroad.

The majority of these imports come from countries in the Mediterranean, North Africa, and South and Central America, which are susceptible to climate-related shocks. Scientists forecast that climate change will lead to yield losses, heat stress, and quality drops in global fruits, vegetables, and annual crops.

A report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) highlights the risks associated with importing food from countries exposed to climate risks. These countries account for 13% of UK food imports, with products such as rice from India, citrus fruits from South Africa, coffee from Vietnam and Brazil, and cocoa beans from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana being particularly vulnerable.

| Import Category | Percentage of UK Imports | | --- | --- | | Rice | 13% | | Citrus Fruits | 13% | | Coffee | 12% | | Cocoa Beans | 11% | | Bananas | 10% | | Tea | 9% |

The total costs associated with these imports are £8.9bn. In 2024, agricultural workers across these top supplying countries lost an estimated 216 billion working hours due to heat stress - almost 600 hours or 49 working days per worker.

The Food Foundation's Executive Director, Anna Taylor, emphasizes the need for the government to invest in increasing domestic production of fruit and vegetables, as well as supporting farmers to adapt to changing weather patterns in the UK.

Analysts warn that the interaction between climate change and emerging weather patterns such as a potential "super" El Niño could intensify pressure on cocoa, sugar, rice, and food oils, with knock-on effects for products including coffee, chocolate, and soy-fed meat.

Research by the ECIU found that when food prices rise during major shocks, they fall back only marginally even after the original pressures ease. Across more than three decades of UK data, shelf prices dropped by just 1% of the original rise after six months, 5% after a year, and 7% after two years.

UK households have seen food prices rise more than 40% since mid-2021, outpacing wages, which have grown by less than 30% on average. The Food Federation claims that government policies need to focus on adaptation measures that build resilience for UK farmers and strengthen local food systems and supply chains.

The horticulture sector is a key area where solutions could be introduced. The Food Federation recommends expanding the sector, which could add billions to the economy, create over 20,000 jobs, and add 3% to farm profits across the country. A forthcoming Horticulture Sector Growth Plan is expected either later this year or in early 2027.